Friday, February 8, 2008

Boring political stuff

Mitt Romney stepped down yesterday, as he thinks that continuing to fight John McCain would damage the party. Wow. What a team player. Its party discipline like Mitt's that allows the Republican party a persistence in power politics that's disproportionate to their base's size. If only the Democrats could do something like that. But their choice isn't clear. Mr. McCain's shot at the nomination was secure by his substantial margin. The democratic contends have a much murkier decision because they're so close. Their closeness, combined with the elongated election season, will lead to a prolonged political battle that saps the power of the Democratic Party for the national election.
Hillary and Obama have a different destiny than the Republican contenders. Their historic run will be marred by the fact that they were run against each other. Don't think that I'm begrudging them their right to run for president. I think a monkey's uncle should be able to run for president. I even think people should be allowed to vote for who they think is proper. What I am saying is that the democrats will flail at each other in an increasingly acrimonious way that will deplete their reserves and leave them wide open for John McCain to rip them apart.
Lets examine McCain versus Hillary first. Hillary is low on funds but up on delegates, so there's no point in quitting now. I remember John Kerry being low on funds during the primaries, taking out a personal loan against Theresa Heinz's fortune, and going on to lose the national election in a "just barely" sort of fashion. I don't think that will happen with Hillary. She'll spend most of her money on beating obama and that whole time, McCain will be stocking up cash and moderating his position so that he can win. Its called the Median Voter Theory. The end result of that strategy is Hillary getting thumped on by a war hero.
Now ponder what Mr. Obama will do. He's raising money like a champ, but is still behind in the delegate category. However an ephemeral thing called "political momentum" is propelling him along to an extent where he'd be a fool to quit. Great. Now he's going to slug it out with Hillary through every state in the Union. Its actually quit democratic, but the whole reason we have shortcuts in our democratic system is because the system takes too long and is too expensive. Obama will do ok against Mr. McCain, but the debates will hurt him badly. McCain will look presidential and on the ball, while Obama's strength lies in laying out the bullshit for crowds. Being parsed by a seasoned political fight like John McCain will be damaging. Middle aged white america will flee Obama and the republicans win.

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